Hong Kong for sure?

Next to Singapore, Shanghai is becoming a new potential rival of Hong Kong.

The anxiety of being replaced by Shanghai as the economic leader in mainland China is a matter of concern. Opinions vary. While some people say Hong Kong’s advanced economic and financial status in the reform of China is on shakey ground, some people are optimistic that Hong Kong’s economic power is still indispensable in leading China’s reform. Hong Kong and Shanghai should complement each other.

From a colony of Britain to a Special Administrative Region of China, what Hong Kong has undergone is not merely a shift in political leadership. After the Handover, Hong Kong lost its position as a colony. Its future must be considered in the context of China’s internal changes and the central government’s will.

A Chinese proverb said two tigers cannot live on the same mountain. If this is true, then competition between Hong Kong and Shanghai is inevitable. The gross domestic product of Hong Kong in 1999 was HK$1,230.4 billion. That of Shanghai was RMB 403.5 billion. Hong Kong’s GDP is thus 223 percent ahead of Shanghai. But this statistic may not be relevant if the competition is long term. While GDP growth in Hong Kong has been slow in recent years, in Shanghai it is increasing at full speed. In the next decade, the predicted growth rate of GDP in Hong Kong and Shanghai are 4 percent and 10 percent, respectively. If such a difference in rates of growth continues, it is just a matter of time before Shanghai catches up.

However, it is not just statistics like the GDP that decide the future of a city. In a poll held by Muzi Community, a website in mainland China, 72 percent of web surfers replied that if a united China should have only one financial hub city like New York in the United States, it should be Shanghai. Only 20 percent of the vote went to Hong Kong. While Shanghai is proud of its growing strength and confident of its prospects, Hong Kong in many ways is still in confusion.

The SAR government is trying hard to compromise different interests, but, sadly, lacks insight. The integrity of the legal system in Hong Kong is repeatedly put to severe tests. The structural problem of Hong Kong’s population as well as the uneven distribution of income also cannot be overlooked. Reforms are put forward, but responses from society tend to be negative. All these political and social dilemmas are eroding Hong Kong people’s confidence in their city’s future.

The lack of confidence in maintaining Hong Kong’s superior position can help to explain Hong Kong people’s anxiety at being suppressed by Shanghai. Such loss of faith is apparently not constructive. If competition is inevitable, Hong Kong must first break the deadlock before stepping forward on a new stage of economic prosperity.

Alison Yeung

Assistant Managing Editor